Analysis of the Jake Peavy trade …

A buddy of mine, David Cameron, who writes occasionally for the Wall Street Journal as well as Fangraphs.com and the website, USSMariner.com, has kindly provided some analysis on the Peavy trade. Dave knows his stuff people, I trust this information.

Here’s what Dave has to say about the haul of players the Padres received in the Peavy deal.

This was a good move for the Padres. 

Poreda’s
got one of the best fastballs (velocity and sink) in the minors, and
while his secondary stuff is bad/non-existant right now, there’s
certainly room for growth.  His upside is pretty darn high.  If he
deosn’t develop a good breaking ball and a change, he could still be a
shut down reliever.

Richard is a heavy sinker ball guy who is perfect for the National
League.  His command is just okay and he struggles against right-handed
hitters, but his fastball gets a lot of groundbals and lefties can’t
touch him.  He’s probably a back-end starter, but he’ll do a solid job
solidifying the end of the rotation for the next few years.

Russell is what Poreda will be if he doesn’t develop any secondary
stuff – a big power arm out of the bullpen who throws hard and has
improving command.  He’s vulnerable against LH hitters, but at worst,
he’s a really good RH specialist out of the pen.  If he can develop a
better curve ball, he could be a relief ace.

Carter is a good ways from the majors, and his numbers need to be
taken with a grain of salt considering his competition (no one in the
SAL can hit), but there’s some upside there.  His fastball is just
average right now, but at 6’6, he’s got room for growth.  A long term
project, but one that could turn into a solid starting pitcher with
some improvements.

Peavy’s a good pitcher, but he benefited quite a bit from Petco
Park, and Richard/Poreda/Russell should see the National League treat
them quite a bit better than the AL did.  Getting out of Chicago’s band
box and away from the DH will improve all of their numbers, and at
worst, you have a nice #4 or #5 starter and two power relievers.  At
best, you’ve got a potential mid-rotation innings eater, a
front-of-the-rotation kid, and a future closer, plus a nice long term
pitching prospect.

Definitely a good haul for Peavy.  San Diego fans should be pleased.

Cheers, Corey
MLB.com, Padres.com, Twitter (@FollowThePadres)

3 Comments

Padres fans should be pleased that we are back in our Q day roots of having the lowest payroll in the MLB….good thing Moores made his 500 million or so in the process (with the team being worth so much more due to the ballpark, and all his RE investments downtown) and that Moores is also forcing the Chargers out of town b/c too many people don’t trust the Chargers b/c the Pads did a nice bait and switch.

Mr. Cameron, I repsect your work very much but you are way off base on this trade. Adam Russell will never be a relief ace. At best he’s a replacement level middle reliever. If Aaron Poreda was ever going to develop even an average secondary pitch don’t you think that would have happened by now? Most guys his age who have no offspeed stuff likely never will. You shouldn’t be getting Padres fans hopes up by dangling the “front of the rotation starter” tag with Poreda.

The best part about this deal for the Padres is that they free up over $50M in payroll over the next few years. Poreda is somewhat puzzling. I watched just about every appearance he made for the White Sox and his fastball topped out in the low 90′s. I believe his average fastball was 92 out of the pen this year, and he never flashed the 95+ heat he was rumored to have. The only way this trade benefits the Padres is if they reinvest some of the money saved in the Peavy contract. Otherwise, they are the Florida Marlins without the young talent.

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