Now that Johan Santana has officially crossed over to the National League — go ahead and shave a half run off his ERA — I thought it might be prudent to look into the crystal ball and predict who will win the 2008 National League Cy Young Award.

And, surprise, it’s not Santana, no matter how much I think he’s going to tear through the National League this season.

I’m going with Padres pitcher Chris Young, and I’ve got my reasons.

Let’s backtrack a little. The 2007 season was a tough one on Young, who first suffered through an oblique injury at the end of July and later subsequent tightness in his lower back which might have come about because he was overcompensating for the oblique injury.

At any rate, Young was clearly a different pitcher in the second half of the season (1-5, 4.80 ERA) than he was in the first half (8-3, 2.00) when he was every bit as good as Jake Peavy and, really, every bit as good as anyone in baseball.

Despite the tough finish, which, again, I think was more about not being healthy than it was being ineffective, Young was still one of the toughest pitchers in baseball to reach base against. Consider the evidence.

Sure, Young ranked fifth in the league in ERA at 3.12 but that doesn’t tell you everything (or, really, much at all). Opponents hit a league-low .192 against him and he allowed a scant 10.25 baserunners per nine innings (second to Peavy). He was also second to Peavy in opponents on-base percentage (.281) and first in opponents slugging (.297)  which, obviously, put him atop the league in opponents OPS (.578).

So how did Young managed just nine victories over 30 starts? Lack of offense was the main culprit, as he had 13 no-decisions. The Padres were 7-6 in those games but the telling statistic was this: In those 13 starts, Young allowed three runs or less over six innings nine times.

And, of course, that doesn’t count the game in Chicago where he was cruising (three scoreless and hitless innings) before the on-field fracas with Derrek Lee nor does it count the game in Colorado when he was hurt in July (two scoreless innings).

So who knows where Young might have ended up had he had better offense, better health and, of course, a little better luck. The fact is this guy is in his prime, he’s healthy, having been active in Pilates classes and other endeavors to strengthen his core this winter. And, most of all, I’ve never heard an opposing hitter tell me why he’s so tough to hit. And if they can’t figure him out …

I think he’s ready for a breakout year, a monster year. I’m saying 19-6 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts. That’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it.

Cheers, Corey

I am, though my control is terrible and I don’t trust myself to throw anything other than the dog’s toy across the room. My swing is pretty rusty these days, just ask the Wii.

But, I am left-handed and I do have a passport with a regrettable picture. So Bud, if the game goes long and you need someone, well, I’ll be in the pressbox.

Anyway, thought it might be fun to look ahead a little to guess which players might be on the Padres 18-hour charter flight from Phoenix to Beijing (by way of Anchorage, I might add) in March for the exhibition games against the Dodgers.

My guess is you won’t see any starting pitchers named Peavy, Young, Maddux or Wolf makes the trip. Spring Training is all about pitchers and getting them settled into a routine that gets them ready for the start of the season. No need to disrupt that by sending them to Beijing, especially when you consider how cold it can be there (the average high is 52, with low of 30) and with the prospect of rain.

I don’t think you’ll see any players working their way back from off-season surgery (Brian Giles or Josh Bard) the trip, nor will you see anyone who has any kind of medical question (Mark Prior is another who won’t go).

So where exactly does that leave us? Well, let’s just say that the team that goes to China could end up looking a lot like the one that won the 2007 Texas League championship in San Antonio. Now I’m sure some veterans will make the trip, especially the ones who express interest in doing so.

Since the team leaves on March 11, the won’t be down to there final cuts yet, so I think there’s a chance some NRI’s (non-roster invitees) could make the trip.

Anyway, just for kicks, let me throw out this starting lineup for China. Tell me what you think?

Catcher – Colt Morton
First base – Brian Myrow
Second base – Matt Antonelli
Shortstop – Oscar Robles
Third base – Craig Stansberry
Left field - Jody Gerut
Center field – Scott Hairston
Right field – Callix Crabbe
Starting pitcher – Tim Stauffer

Cheers, Corey

It’s true. Seriously.

While talking to general manager Kevin Towers about his contract extension through 2010, we got to talking about his first big trade: Picking up Wally Joyner from the Royals for Bip Roberts.

Good stuff, until Towers mentioned that, less than two months on the job in 1995, he and Alderson nearly agreed to a deal that would have sent McGwire, then 31, to the Padres for five players.

The deal might have happened Towers said but Alderson insisted on a sixth player and the trade fell through. "Talks broke off," Towers said.

In 1997, McGwire was finally traded to the Cardinals, where he proceeded to hit balls to the moon, and all points beyond, including that 70 home run season in 1998.

Granted, the Padres would have had to part with several key players to land McGwire — Towers was not sure of the names Wednesday — and it could be argued that some of those players likely helped the Padres to the World Series in 1998.

It’s safe to say the deal wasn’t McGwire for Ray Holbert, Scott Sanders and Melvin Nieves deal. Towers is good, but …

Still, it’s fun to think what McGwire hitting in the middle of the lineup would have meant to that team that lost to the Yankees.

Cheers, Corey

It’s not a corner outfielder, but at some point this week, possibly as soon as Tuesday, the Padres will announce a significant contract signing: That being an extension for general manager Kevin Towers, the longest-tenured general manager currently in baseball.

Like other general managers who have decent tenure, you can look at Towers’ record and find scores of good trades (getting Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez from Texas) and and bad trades (dealing Mark Loretta to the Red Sox for, cough, Doug Mirabelli) as well as free-agent signings that can also be classified as good or bad.

Towers has been hailed as something of a genius for some of his moves, fleecing, if you will, other general mangers (still wondering how and why the Mets dumped Heath Bell) and putting together a competitive, contending team more often than not under sometimes difficult financial constraints.

A side note: For a better looks at some of Towers’ deals, I would highly suggest picking up Geoff Young’s book, "Ducksnorts, 2007 Baseball Annual". Geoff, who has been running the well-informed ducksnorts.com blog long before blogging became cool, has helped a newcomer on the beat get acclimated. Looking forward to his 2008 annual.

At any rate, I’m wondering what your thoughts on Towers are. I think you would be hard-pressed to find a better talent-evaluator among general managers than Towers. Like other GM’s, Towers has scouting in his blood. Unlike some GM’s, he uses it to his advantage more often than not.

UPDATE: The Padres will hold a press conference on Wednesday at PETCO Park to announce that they have signed Towers to an extension that will take him through the 2010 season. As usual, we will be there and will have a story up on the site sometime later Thursday evening.

Cheers, Corey

I can’t help but think this could very well be Khalil Greene’s last season with the Padres. Here’s why.

The Padres and Greene’s representation failed to reach a long-term contract for the shortstop. The hesitancy here is one-sided here, and it’s not the Padres who are balking on a long-term deal.

General manager Kevin Towers would like nothing more than to lock up Greene — coming off of his best professional year — to a three-, or four-year contract.

But Greene’s camp has balked at a long-term deal and were willing to head to arbitration this year and, I have to guess, they’ll be willing to do the same next year, as Greene heads into the last year (2009) that he’s under club control. 

This leads me to believe that Greene, ultimately, wants to play elsewhere. Maybe the East Coast, closer to his home in South Carolina. Maybe the hitter-friendly American League or just maybe somewhere other than PETCO Park, where Greene, for his career, is hitting 52 points lower (.228) than on the road (.280).

So, if you were the Padres, what do you do?

Do you trade Greene after the season rather than head into the last season that he’s under club control? He’s coming off a huge year at the plate, he’s very good defensively and his trade value is through the roof right now and, at 28, he’s in the prime of his career.

Or do you try to convince his agent once again that he should sign a long-term deal here, hoping  that they have a change of heart? What complicates matters is the Padres don’t have a shortstop in their Minor League system who is remotely close to being Major League ready.

What would you do? Would you let it play out and see what happens? Would you be pro-active in moving Greene?

Cheers, Corey

Hola, back from a week in Cancun (our hotel is pictured below) followed by a day at Disneyland — my wife loves the place and, really, we were looking for any way to prolong our honeymoon.
Observation: I’m all about supporting the local team but I might have seen more Chargers’ jerseys than mouse ears at Disneyland.
Funny, most of those jerseys looked pretty new, not that I’ll accuse anyone of jumping on the bandwagon or anything.
Anyway, back to baseball.
On Thursday, the much-anticipated fly-ball session of the century will take place — kidding, of course — at PETCO Park when Chase Headley takes a shot at the outfield. He’ll be joined by Matt Antonelli, who will take ground balls and fly balls as well as outfielders Scott Hairston and Chad Huffman.
It might take some time but I think Headley will eventually be fine in the outfield. As for Antonelli, it will be interesting to see how he looks in center field. He just moved from third base to second base last season and the Padres still think highly of him at second base.
However, the team thinks he’s a good enough athlete to possibly make such a move down the road, though he’ll likely spend the entire 2008 season as a second baseman, either starting back at San Antonio or in Portland.
We’ll have all the details on padres.com later Thursday, so make sure and check back to see how Headley and Antonelli looked.

Cheers, Corey